Tuesday, May 13, 2014

From 30 to 23, who is going to Brazil for the USMNT? Part 1: Goalkeepers and Defenders

So we finally have the preliminary roster for Brazil 2014. The biggest surprise exclusion, as has been covered ad nauseam, is Eddie Johnson. I don't have that much to add regarding him missing the cut except for to say that I was impressed with how mature he handled it, and that if this happened last year I would have been worried because him and Deuce are good friends off the field. However, with him taking a paycheck over friendship and success, I think it's less of an issue than it would otherwise have been.

Right, so on to the fun stuff, we have 30 names, but by June 2 that will only be 23. As I look at the names on the list, this is who I would bring and hopefully a couple reasons why:

Goalkeepers:

We are going to Brazil: Tim Howard, Brad Guzan, Nick Rimando

You're not going to Brazil: nobody

Timmy had 15 clean sheets this season, the most he's ever had and is the indisputable #1 going into Brazil. Guzan's season wasn't as good as last season, but he's still been great and is as solid a backup as you could possibly hope for. Rimando, meanwhile, has been playing so well that he has his own hashtag #wallofthewasatch, and is in the early season discussion in some circles for MVP. The last time a keeper was reasonably in that discussion was Tony Meola. Besides, you're required to take 3 and these are the only 3 on the 30 man roster, so they are going. Also, you gotta love the beard, as well as it's mystical penalty-saving powers.
Courtesy of sportskeeda.com


Defenders:

We are going to Brazil: DeMarcus Beasley, Matt Besler, Geoff Cameron, Omar Gonzalez, Fabian Johnson, Michael Parkhurst

You're not going to Brazil: John Brooks, Timmy Chandler, Clarence Goodson, Brad Evans, Deandre Yedlin

Starters: Fabian Johnson, Besler, Gonzalez, Cameron

What? You're only taking 6 defenders? Dude, you must be crazy. Don't you know that 4 of them have to play at all times?! What if somebody gets injured, or is on suspension?

Let me explain:

Besler, Gonzalez, Johnson, Cameran, and Beasley are basically locks. Goodson is just below a lock, and provides good depth and experience. So why did he get cut? As per this great piece by Jonathan Liew, if there is a place that managers waste World Cup roster spots on players who don't play, it's in defense. The nature of modern tactics is such that substitutions rarely happen in defense, and no more than one per game unless there are extenuating circumstances like injuries. Even if you want to shut things down in the last 20 minutes if you are ahead 1-0, what substitution is usually made? A defensive midfielder or auxiliary fullback for an offensive player, depending on if the greater threat is in the center of the pitch or the wings. What's the worst case scenario with this group? Let's say Omar's knee flairs up, one of Besler or Cameron is on yellow card suspension, and Fabian Johnson gets injured. That's some awful bad luck. Still it wouldn't be an end of days scenario. That leaves Run DMB at left back, the other of Besler or Cameron paired with Mo Edu (who we'll get to later) in the middle, and Parkhurst at right back. Is that much of a step down from my listed starting 4? And that really is an end of days scenario.

Or, put another way, under what circumstances is Goodson going to play? The top 3 center backs are Besler, Gonzalez, and Cameron in some order. So 2 of the three of them have to be out. Even if that happens, Parkhurst isn't much of a step down from Goodson and provides the versatility to play either fullback as well. Johnson can play either fullback or in the midfield. Even with this small group of 6 players, you have 3 capable left backs (Johnson, DMB, Parkhurst), 4 capable central defenders (Besler, Gonzalez, Cameron, Parkhurst), and 3 capable right backs (Cameron, Johnson, Parkhurst) while freeing up spots for players that actually can make a difference rather than just being "cover". That's 10 capable defenders for the price of 6. Even only taking these 6, there is a very realistic possibility that Parkhurst wouldn't even see the field. Think about it.

Brad Evans has been a capable deputy at RB but it isn't his natural position, and he isn't good enough in midfield to see time so he's out. Brooks has all the tools, but he isn't going to crack the rotation either, I'd take Cameron over him if I needed to. Chandler is perhaps the best right back there is, but he's not as consistent as Cameron, who I'd start over him anyway, and I want somebody who truly bleeds for the shirt, and, for now, he hasn't proven he does. Yedlin is great going forward, but he's a liability at the back and needs time.

So that's 9 roster spots down and 14 to go. Midfielders and strikers are still to come.

1 comment:

  1. I don't see how you can put Omar Gonzalez as a starter. That dude had f'd up so many times. There is no way he can be trusted to start in the World Cup. Our top 3 defenders are Timmy Chandler, Geoff Cameron, and Fabian Johnson. Move Geoff Cameron to CB and put Chandler at LB/RB. If we start those 4 our defense will be solid.

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