What to expect against Mexico

The recent success of the 4-5-1 in the quarters and semifinals, along with Jozy Altidore's injury, pretty much ensures that the U.S. will start out in that formation. I expect Kljestan's poor form in the first half, combined with Landon Donovan's overall hatred of all things south of the border (he once said of the rivalry "It's not just another game for me. I clearly, absolutely, desparately want to beat them"), means LD will not start a third straight match on the bench. He'll be motivated and anxious to resume his status as the villian (or the proverbial "man in the black hat" if you are so inclined). He loves and relishes it and has played some of his best soccer against Mexico (2002 WC quaterfinal, and his first international goal came against El Tri).

Point is, Donovan should replace Kljestan, but begs the question of who will play the Central Attacking Midfielder position. Bedoya will probably get the start out wide, leaving Donovan or Dempsey to take the middle. I assume Bradley will push Deuce to the CAM and put Donovan out on the left wing. If it were me, I would switch those roles. Deuce loves cutting inside, and remember that Landon played a withdrawn striker through most of the 2002 WC, when he was extremely effective, and caused Mexico all kinds of problems. I think his distribution is better than Deuce, who often tries to get his first (not necessarily a problem, but maybe not the best fit for the CAM position). If it were me (and it's not), my starting XI would look like this:

--------------------------Howard------------------------
Cherudolo ------- Goodson----Bocanegra-----Lichaj
----------------Jones------------Edu--------------------
Bedoya----------------Donovan-------------Dempsey
-------------------------Agudelo-------------------------

I like Edu over Jones as more of a personal preference. I love Michael Bradley's work rate, and his longball distribution is better than Edu's, but that leads to a propensity to give away possession trying to thread the needle on a long ball when shorter higher percentage passes are there waiting for him. I would have Adu, Bradley and Kljestan on the bench waiting to sub for any of the midfielders.

Bob Bradley, however, will probably trot out these guys:
--------------------------Howard------------------------
Cherudolo ------- Goodson----Bocanegra-----Lichaj
----------------Jones------------Bradley----------------
Bedoya----------------Dempsey-------------Donovan
-------------------------Agudelo-------------------------

If we have the game in hand, look for him to bring on Edu and Kljestan as subs for Bedoya and Donovan. Adu could see action if the offense is stagnant or we are behind and need some creativity off the bench. The match probably hinges for the U.S. on two things. First, they have to maintain enough possession to keep the ball out of their own end as described in my previous post about the drawback of the 4-5-1. Second, they HAVE to finish their chances, because they certainly won't be as plentiful as they were against Jamaica or Guadeloupe. Look for both teams to come out trying to draw first blood. The U.S. has to be disciplined against Chicharito and Lichaj and Dolo can contain the opposing midfielders and marauding runs of Giovanni Dos Santos. Mexico probably has the superior talent, but the U.S. can pull this out if they stay disciplined and are sharp on the ball.